Bonus Expected-Value calculator

Type a Canadian welcome-bonus offer in below to see whether the headline number actually translates to positive expected value once you account for wagering, game contribution and real RTP. We assume the wagering applies to the bonus only (the harsher and more common Canadian spec); cap matches at most operators ranges around C$1,000.

Bonus credited—

Turnover required—

Expected loss to clear—

EV of the offer—

Enter all six values to see the result.

How the bonus EV calculator works

Every casino welcome offer can be reduced to a single number: the expected value, in Canadian dollars, of taking the bonus versus refusing it. The headline percentage (100% match, 200% match, 250% match up to C$4,500) is marketing — the math underneath is what determines whether the offer pays you or pays the operator. Hudson Casino's calculator runs the same six-input model we use internally when scoring the Bonus Terms (20%) criterion in our How We Rate methodology.

The math is deliberately simple so you can sanity-check it yourself.

The formula

Bonus credited      = min(Deposit × Match%, Bonus cap)
Effective turnover  = (Bonus × Wagering) ÷ (Contribution%)
Expected loss       = Turnover × (1 − RTP%)
EV of the offer     = Bonus − Expected loss

We assume wagering applies to the bonus only, which is the harsher and more common Canadian spec (PlayOJO, Jackpot City, Spin Casino, Crownplay, Skycrown). If your operator's terms apply wagering to deposit + bonus, the EV gets worse — multiply turnover by (deposit + bonus) / bonus and re-run.

What each input means

Your deposit (CAD): The amount you'd actually put in. This is the variable that defines the bonus and your exposure. We default to C$100 because it's roughly the median Canadian welcome deposit in our test logs.
Match %: The headline marketing number. 100% = doubled deposit, 200% = tripled, 250% = quadrupled.
Bonus cap (CAD): The maximum bonus the match can produce. Crownplay caps at C$4,500, Jackpot City at C$1,600, most Curaçao-licensed operators in our top 15 cap between C$300 and C$1,500.
Wagering multiplier (×): The hardest constraint in the terms. 20× is excellent (PlayOJO's no-wagering policy scores at the top of this criterion in our methodology). 30× is standard. 50× or 60× is restrictive — most Canadian operators will not let you withdraw bonus winnings until you've put through that multiple in real bets.
Game RTP %: The return-to-player of the games you'll actually play through the wagering. Best slots (Book of Dead, Starburst XXXtreme, Sweet Bonanza 1000) sit at 96–98%. Live blackjack with proper basic strategy approaches 99.5%, but contribution rates usually reduce its bonus utility (see below).
Game contribution %: The fraction of your wagered amount that counts toward the wagering requirement. Slots usually count at 100%. Live blackjack typically counts at 10% — meaning you have to wager 10× more to clear the bonus on blackjack than on slots. This is where most "I'll clear it on blackjack" plans collapse.

Reading the four output cells

Bonus credited: The actual bonus amount the operator hands you after your deposit posts.
Turnover required: The total dollar amount you have to wager (after the contribution adjustment) before the bonus and any associated winnings cash out.
Expected loss to clear: Turnover multiplied by house edge (1 − RTP%). This is what the math says you'll lose, on average, during the play-through.
EV of the offer: Bonus minus expected loss. If positive, the offer pays you more than it costs you to clear. If negative, it costs you more than it pays.

The four verdicts

The calculator labels the result based on EV relative to the bonus: - Strong offer (EV > 40% of bonus): Most of the bonus value survives the wagering. These are rare — PlayOJO's 50 free spins with no wagering routinely score here. - Positive EV but tight (0 < EV < 40%): Math works, but you have to stick to the highest-RTP slots. Don't drift to blackjack. - Slightly negative (−50% of bonus < EV < 0): You're paying for the entertainment of the bonus play-through. Only take it if you were going to deposit anyway. - Bad offer (EV < −50% of bonus): Wagering burns more than the bonus pays. Skip the bonus, deposit without it, keep your full bankroll.

Worked example: Jackpot City's 100% up to C$1,600

Deposit C$200, take the 100% match, hit the C$200 bonus, 70× wagering (Jackpot City's terms), 96.5% RTP slots, 100% contribution.

Bonus credited: C$200
Turnover required: C$200 × 70 = C$14,000
Expected loss: C$14,000 × 0.035 = C$490
EV: C$200 − C$490 = −C$290

Wagering at 70× is exactly why we rank Jackpot City's bonus terms in the lower-middle of our top 15 despite the headline C$1,600 cap. The bonus is real money — but the cost of clearing it exceeds the bonus by C$290 on average.

Worked example: PlayOJO's no-wagering 100 free spins

Bonus = 100 spins × C$0.20 = C$20 in free-spin value. Wagering = 0. Turnover required = C$0. Expected loss = C$0. EV = +C$20.

This is why PlayOJO sits at the top of our Bonus Terms criterion: there is no math that turns a no-wagering offer into a negative expected-value proposition. Their bonus cap is small, but the EV is unambiguous.

Caveats

The calculator assumes you actually complete the wagering. If you abandon mid-play-through (which happens more than the industry advertises), realized loss diverges from expected loss.
Live dealer and live game-show titles often have different contribution rates than headline slots — verify in the operator's T&Cs before assuming 100%.
Some operators add a max-bet rule during wagering (typically C$5 per spin). Exceeding it can void the bonus entirely. The calculator does not model this; treat the EV as an upper bound on actual outcome.
Sticky bonuses (where the bonus itself is non-cashable, only the winnings are) require a different model. Our calculator handles cashable bonuses, which is the dominant Canadian format.

Where to use this

We embed this calculator on our PayPal casinos page (PayPal-eligible offers tend to come with stricter terms than headline match offers) and on our Interac casinos page (most Canadian players' default deposit method, which is what the bonus terms are written around). It also lives here as a standalone tool. If you spot a discrepancy between our scoring and your math, email editorial@thehealthgap.ca with subject "Methodology" and we'll respond personally.

For the full wagering math, including the play-time conversion at typical autoplay pace, use our wagering requirements calculator. For the deep methodology behind how we weight bonus terms relative to withdrawal speed and game library, see How We Rate.

Bonus EV calculator for Canadian casino offers